Development and transport implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands : scenarios for 2030 and 2050
نویسندگان
چکیده
Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transport technology will affect transport demand and planning. This study uses scenario analysis to identify plausible future development paths of automated vehicles in the Netherlands and to estimate potential implications for traffic, travel behaviour and transport planning on a time horizon up to 2030 and 2050. The scenario analysis was performed through a series of three workshops engaging a group of diverse experts. Sixteen key factors and five driving forces behind them were identified as critical in determining future development of automated vehicles in the Netherlands. Four scenarios were constructed assuming combinations of high or low technological development and restrictive or supportive policies for automated vehicles (AV ...in standby, AV ...in bloom, AV ...in demand, AV ...in doubt). According to the scenarios, fully automated vehicles are expected to be commercially available between 2025 and 2045, and to penetrate the market rapidly after their introduction. Penetration rates are expected to vary among different scenarios between 1% and 11% (mainly conditionally automated vehicles) in 2030 and between 7% and 61% (mainly fully automated vehicles) in 2050. Complexity of the urban environment and unexpected incidents may influence development path of automated vehicles. Certain implications on mobility are expected in all scenarios, although there is great variation in the impacts among the scenarios. Measures to curb growth of travel and subsequent externalities are expected in three out of the four scenarios.
منابع مشابه
A Comparative Review of Global Transportation Energy Outlook
In 2010, the global transport sector consumed about 2,200 million tons of oil equivalent. About 96% of this amount came from oil. It shows that more than 60% of the oil consumed globally goes to the transportation sector. Road transport accounts for the bulk of the transportation energy consumption. The light-duty vehicles (LDVs), including light trucks, light commercial vehicles, and minibuses...
متن کاملInvestigating carbon emission abatement long-term plan with the aim of energy system modeling; case study of Iran
Increasing electric vehicles usage, as a promising solution for environmental issues, might have unexpected implications, since it entails some changes in different sectors and scales in energy system. In this respect, this research aims at investigating the long-term impacts of electric vehicles deployment on Iran's energy system. Accordingly, Iran's energy system was analyzed by LEAP model in...
متن کاملFreight transport development forecasts in enterprises management
In this study, an investigation of long-term forecasts relating to the development of the transport sector in Poland is performed, including the ones by 2030 and 2050. Selected transport development forecasts from the perspective of the membership of Poland in the European Union are presented and most of all, from the perspective of national studies. The basement for the review was the prognosi...
متن کاملThe Effect of Uncertainty on US Transport - related GHG Emissions and Fuel Consumption out to 2050 Parisa Bastani , John B . Heywood and Chris Hope
The future of U.S. transport energy requirements and emissions is uncertain. Transport policy research has explored a number of scenarios to better understand the future characteristics of U.S. light-duty vehicles. Deterministic scenario analysis is, however, unable to identify the impact of uncertainty on the future U.S. vehicle fleet emissions and energy use. Variables determining the future ...
متن کاملThe effect of uncertainty on US transport-related GHG emissions and fuel consumption out to 2050
The future of US transport energy requirements and emissions is uncertain. Transport policy research has explored a number of scenarios to better understand the future characteristics of US light-duty vehicles. Deterministic scenario analysis is, however, unable to identify the impact of uncertainty on the future US vehicle fleet emissions and energy use. Variables determining the future fleet ...
متن کامل